[{"_1":2,"_157":-5,"_158":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_9":10},"root",{"_5":6,"_7":8},"locale","id","isCms",false,"routes/tags/$slug",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_144":145,"_151":147,"_155":150,"_156":-5},"slug","benua-maritim-indonesia","ads",[],"posts",[17],{"_6":18,"_19":20,"_11":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43,"_44":45,"_46":47,"_48":49,"_50":51,"_52":53,"_54":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":61,"_141":142,"_70":143},"019bc582-7328-7046-99a1-7ad1b9ae6519","title","Memahami pengaruh Madden–Julian Oscillation terhadap curah hujan di Indonesia","memahami-pengaruh-madden–julian-oscillation-terhadap-curah-hujan-di-indonesia","main_id","019bb73f-297b-7103-96b7-87ea173dc182","main_name","Iptek","main_slug","iptek-id","date","2026-01-16 00:00:00","author_id","019bb745-b426-73a2-9a49-5ddcb6765ea0","author_name","indowin","full_name","Indonesia Window","author_firstname","Indonesia","author_slug","indonesiawindow","content","

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap pola hujan di Indonesia, dengan sistem atmosfer yang unik.

Jakarta (Indonesia Window) — Fenomena atmosfer global bernama Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap pola hujan di Indonesia. Namun, dampaknya tidak sesederhana yang dibayangkan.

Hal ini disampaikan Pallav Ray, peneliti dari Florida Institute of Technology, dalam sebuah webinar yang digelar Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN), Senin (12/1).

Webinar bertajuk ‘On the Role of Land–Atmosphere Interactions on Precipitation and MJO in the Maritime Continent’ tersebut diselenggarakan oleh Pusat Riset Iklim dan Atmosfer (PRIMA) BRIN. Kegiatan ini membahas hasil riset terbaru terkait peran interaksi antara daratan dan atmosfer terhadap curah hujan serta dinamika MJO di wilayah Benua Maritim Indonesia (BMI).

Dalam kesempatan itu, Pallav menjelaskan bahwa pengaruh MJO terhadap curah hujan di Indonesia sangat kompleks dan menjadi perhatian serius para peneliti dunia. Pasalnya, wilayah Benua Maritim Indonesia tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh sistem iklim global, tetapi juga mampu memengaruhi iklim dunia.

“Memahami bagaimana MJO memengaruhi cuaca di Indonesia sangat penting, terutama untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi cuaca ekstrem yang berdampak pada bencana hidrometeorologi seperti banjir dan longsor,” jelasnya.

Menurut Pallav, karakteristik geografis Indonesia yang terdiri atas banyak pulau besar dan dikelilingi perairan hangat menciptakan sistem atmosfer yang unik. Kondisi ini sangat berpengaruh terhadap pembentukan hujan.

Hasil eksperimen pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa keberadaan pulau memiliki peran penting dalam mendukung terjadinya hujan. Ketika daratan “dihilangkan” dalam simulasi model, curah hujan justru menurun, tidak hanya di wilayah daratan, tetapi juga di lautan.

“Ini menegaskan betapa kuatnya pengaruh pulau-pulau di Indonesia terhadap sistem hujan regional,” ujarnya.

Pallav juga mengungkap adanya ketidaksimetrisan respons atmosfer terhadap sumber panas. Panas yang berasal dari wilayah seperti Kalimantan atau Sumatra dapat memengaruhi daerah yang jauh ke arah timur, bahkan hingga Papua Nugini. Sebaliknya, pengaruh dari arah timur ke barat relatif lebih lemah.

Temuan ini dinilai menantang teori klasik tentang sirkulasi atmosfer tropis. Pasalnya, hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa sumber panas berskala kecil pun tetap mampu memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap sistem atmosfer.

Dalam paparannya, Pallav menekankan pentingnya proses atmosfer di atas planetary boundary layer (PBL) atau lapisan terbawah atmosfer. Berdasarkan hasil eksperimen, sekitar 40 persen penurunan curah hujan disebabkan oleh berkurangnya aliran udara di atas PBL, sementara 60 persen lainnya berasal dari proses yang terjadi di dalam PBL.

“Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa peran troposfer bebas jauh lebih besar dari yang selama ini diperkirakan,” tegasnya.

Topografi juga terbukti sangat memengaruhi siklus harian hujan, terutama di wilayah dengan ketinggian di atas 1.000 meter di atas permukaan laut. Pallav menekankan bahwa representasi topografi yang akurat dalam model iklim sangat penting, karena kesalahan simulasi hujan di daratan dapat berdampak hingga ke wilayah laut.

Selain itu, penambahan komponen precipitation-induced surface heat flux (QP) dalam model terbukti mampu memperbaiki hasil simulasi. Komponen ini dapat mengurangi bias waktu dan intensitas puncak hujan harian, serta menurunkan tingkat kesalahan model hingga 10–15 persen.

“Meski belum sepenuhnya menjelaskan variasi hujan dalam jangka waktu yang lebih panjang, perbaikan ini sangat penting dan tidak boleh diabaikan,” jelasnya.

Di akhir pemaparannya, Pallav menyoroti masih terbatasnya data observasi terkait fluks panas permukaan dan kelembapan tanah di wilayah Benua Maritim Indonesia. Keterbatasan ini menjadi tantangan besar dalam pengembangan dan evaluasi model iklim.

Dia menekankan pentingnya penguatan sistem observasi untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi iklim dan cuaca ekstrem di Indonesia.

Laporan: Redaksi

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