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Paris, Prancis (Xinhua/Indonesia Window) – Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diproyeksikan mencapai 2,9 persen pada 2026 dan 3,0 persen pada 2027, menurut Laporan Sementara Prospek Ekonomi yang dirilis oleh Organisasi untuk Kerja Sama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/OECD) pada Rabu (23/9).

Pertumbuhan di perekonomian-perekonomian maju G20, serta di perekonomian-perekonomian pasar berkembang G20, diproyeksikan akan tetap stabil secara umum, menurut laporan itu.

Inflasi utama G20 diperkirakan meningkat dari 3,4 persen pada 2025 menjadi 4,1 persen pada 2026, sebelum melandai menjadi 3,6 persen pada 2027, menurut laporan tersebut.

Di perekonomian-perekonomian maju G20, inflasi utama diproyeksikan meningkat dari 2,5 persen pada 2025 menjadi 3,2 persen pada 2026, sebelum turun menjadi 2,6 persen pada 2027. Sementara itu, di perekonomian-perekonomian pasar berkembang G20, inflasi diperkirakan meningkat dari 4,1 persen menjadi 4,8 persen, sebelum melandai menjadi 4,3 persen.

OECD mengatakan proyeksi itu didasarkan pada asumsi teknis bahwa harga minyak mentah Brent dan harga gas TTF akan mencapai puncaknya pada kuartal keempat 2026 dan kemudian menurun secara bertahap hingga akhir 2027.

Proyeksi harga minyak mentah Brent itu secara umum konsisten dengan skenario \"gangguan singkat\" dalam Prospek Ekonomi OECD edisi Juni 2026, sementara proyeksi harga gas sekitar 60 persen lebih tinggi.

Ketidakpastian yang terus-menerus mengenai perkembangan konflik di Timur Tengah masih menjadi risiko utama terhadap proyeksi dasar tersebut, seperti diperingatkan OECD, seraya menambahkan bahwa pembatasan ekspor melalui Selat Hormuz, gangguan tambahan pada jalur ekspor alternatif seperti Selat Bab al-Mandab, atau kerusakan signifikan lebih lanjut pada fasilitas produksi energi di kawasan itu dapat memicu kenaikan harga energi yang berkelanjutan dan berpotensi menyebabkan kekurangan komoditas utama, terutama di negara-negara pengimpor bersih.

Cadangan gas Eropa yang rendah dan ketidakpastian mengenai kemungkinan pengurangan lebih lanjut persediaan minyak di beberapa negara dapat memperburuk risiko gangguan pasokan.

\"Penyesuaian suku bunga kebijakan moneter lebih lanjut mungkin diperlukan,\" kata OECD, sembari menyebut bahwa dihadapkan pada kembali terjadinya guncangan harga energi, tekanan permintaan yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan, dan inflasi di atas target di banyak perekonomian, bank sentral perlu memastikan bahwa tekanan inflasi yang mendasarinya terkendali secara berkelanjutan.

OECD juga menyerukan reformasi kebijakan struktural lebih lanjut untuk membantu perekonomian mengatasi guncangan pasokan di masa depan, termasuk diversifikasi pasokan energi, peningkatan efisiensi energi, peningkatan penyesuaian pasar produk dan tenaga kerja, serta memastikan para pekerja memiliki keterampilan yang mudah beradaptasi.

Laporan: Redaksi

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