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Pasar minyak akan terus menghadapi kelangkaan yang signifikan, dengan premi risiko geopolitik yang diperkirakan tetap tinggi.

Beijing, Iran (Xinhua/Indonesia Window) – Serangan yang dilancarkan oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Israel terhadap Iran telah memicu lonjakan tajam harga minyak global, sehingga menimbulkan guncangan di pasar saham dan memperburuk ketidakstabilan ekonomi global.

Harga minyak mentah AS melonjak pesat melampaui ambang batas 100 dolar AS menyusul serangkaian serangan yang terjadi, mencapai titik tertingginya sejak awal krisis Ukraina pada 2022. Harga minyak mentah Brent diperdagangkan pada level 114,78 dolar per barel, sementara minyak mentah acuan AS melonjak hingga hampir 114,00 dolar AS. Keduanya menunjukkan kenaikan lebih dari 20 persen di atas harga penutupan pada Jumat (6/3).

Kenaikan harga terbaru ini menutup pekan yang volatil, di mana harga minyak mentah AS melonjak sebesar 36 persen dan Brent meningkat 28 persen. Pasar bereaksi terhadap kekhawatiran yang kian meningkat bahwa serangan militer AS-Israel terhadap Iran yang sedang berlangsung berpotensi melumpuhkan output minyak regional dan mengganggu rute pelayaran yang krusial.

Faktor-faktor utamanya meliputi blokade Selat Hormuz, yang merupakan jalur vital bagi perdagangan minyak global, serta pemangkasan produksi dari eksportir minyak besar seperti Irak, Qatar, Kuwait, dan Uni Emirat Arab, akibat kapasitas penyimpanan dan penyulingan yang terbatas. Perusahaan Minyak Nasional (National Petroleum Company) Kuwait telah mengumumkan pengurangan produksi akibat ancaman keamanan yang terus berlangsung dan gangguan pada jalur pelayaran.

Meski adanya upaya dari negara-negara lain untuk meningkatkan pasokan, para analis memprediksi bahwa pasar minyak akan terus menghadapi kelangkaan yang signifikan, dengan premi risiko geopolitik yang diperkirakan tetap tinggi. Lonjakan harga minyak ini memberikan beban tambahan bagi ekonomi global yang sedang mengalami kesulitan.

Lonjakan harga minyak telah memicu gejolak di seluruh pasar keuangan global, yang menyebabkan indeks saham utama mengalami penurunan tajam. Di Asia, Bursa Efek Tokyo (Tokyo Stock Exchange) mencatatkan kerugian besar pada Senin (9/3), dengan indeks Nikkei 225 merosot lebih dari 7 persen. Pasar saham Korea Selatan juga terdampak parah dengan indeks berjangka KOSPI 200 turun lebih dari 6 persen, yang memicu penghentian sementara penjualan otomatis.

Pasar Eropa menghadapi aksi jual serupa seiring dengan menyebarnya kepanikan di seluruh benua, dengan indeks berjangka EUROSTOXX 50 dan DAX keduanya merosot 3,2 persen, sementara indeks berjangka FTSE turun 1,7 persen.

Di AS, pasar saham bereaksi dengan volatilitas yang signifikan, di mana indeks berjangka S&P 500 merosot 2,1 persen dan indeks berjangka Nasdaq anjlok 2,5 persen. Para investor kian khawatir bahwa lonjakan harga minyak akan memicu kenaikan biaya produksi dan peningkatan inflasi, yang dapat memperlemah pertumbuhan ekonomi karena pemulihan pascapandemi masih rapuh.

Volatilitas pasar saat ini menyoroti eskalasi kekhawatiran terkait kerusakan struktural jangka panjang yang disebabkan oleh serangan AS-Israel terhadap Iran. Mengingat kondisi ekonomi global yang masih rentan, eskalasi ini berisiko menghambat tren pemulihan yang baru dimulai, serta menciptakan efek domino yang akan berdampak jauh ke luar wilayah Timur Tengah.

Laporan: Redaksi

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